NamMedevac 70
Reno
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Several new emerging technologies may limit the demand for EVs in near or distant future or replace them.
It would take many years to build out an expensive National Electric Gid to accommodate a massive surge in operating EVs on the road.
Present national grid is very fragile.
Present and future National Grid still dependent on Fossil fuel to generate electricity. Solar and Wind contribute only small amounts.
Present EVs not as useful or versatile as similar ICE vehicles.
Glad I don't have one in this severe winter on the west coast.
Most EV owners still have ICE vehicle for backup. HE HE!!!!
Many EV owners have or will return to ICE vehicles for some of the above reasons.
With only EV 3 to 5% of the 300,000,000 vehicles on the road. Not likely.
I can go on and on. Yes, I read a lot of auto and tech news.
No way EVs going to replace ICE by 2035 that is media and political smack by politicians.
The future may be a very very fragmented auto/truck powered market.
* This post was
edited 03/07/23 06:07am by NamMedevac 70 *
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ktmrfs
Portland, Oregon
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agesilaus wrote:ktmrfs wrote:predicting the future more than 10 years from now is pretty likely to be wrong.
Often true but in this case ten years isn not that far out,
-EV are only a little more than 5% of the market right now, and that is mostly on the left coast.
-Even with massive government subsidies, EV are very expensive
-Range anxiety confirmed
-Lack of working fast chargers or any chargers for that matter
-Even fast chargers can take 45 minutes to recharge an EV vs 5 minutes inb a gas station for an ICE
-There are not enough materials: copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel and other materials to switch to all EV manufacture.
- Greenies are blocking more mining in the US and other nations of the above materials. And there aren't enough known deposits anyway.
- This current winter really showed even the EV converts the shortcomings of EV
Yes, there are lots of issues with EV's and hybrids so my point was trying to predict the mix of EV, hybrids, plug in hybrids and ICE only vehicles 10 years from now or that any of the options will disapear is an excercise in futility. It's not clear yet (at least to me) that there is any obvious winner in the options mix. They may all co exist for a long time.
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toedtoes
California
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wapiticountry wrote:toedtoes wrote:It all depends on the technology, the electric grid, the government, the buyers, and so on.
I'm not buying anything in the current climate. Who knows what will happen tomorrow. With my luck, I'd end up with the betamax of car engines...
The Betamax thing is a real concern. Currently there are several, real , major issues with EVs. Can they be solved? Maybe. Will they be solved in a way that is backwards compatible? Less likely. Are there competing technologies in development that may render current EVs the equivalent to that Betamax? Yes. Are current EVs perfect vehicles for a percentage of the population? Absolutely. Are they also completely unworkable for another segment of the auto market? Again absolutely.
The difference for me is trashing an obsolete Betamax that cost a few hundred dollars stings. Having a $50,000 white elephant of a car hurts for a long time and will likely leave some pretty ugly financial scars.
Exactly. I don't want to spend $50k on a vehicle today that isn't even half as effective as a vehicle built 5 years from now.
I have one vehicle that does everything I need in a vehicle: daily driver, city vehicle, tow vehicle, decent hauler for casual needs, mountain driving, etc.
If I got an electric vehicle today, I'd still need another vehicle to do half of that. So buying now doesn't make sense anyway.
But when you add on the emerging technologies, the grid issues, etc, it just makes it a complete waste of money to buy now. And that includes buying an ICE vehicle. It could easily be in 5 years that EVs have made HUGE advancements or that another technology comes forward that surpasses EV and ICE.
I'll hang on to that $50-80k for the time being and puddle along in my 2002 suv...
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toedtoes
California
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ktmrfs wrote:agesilaus wrote:ktmrfs wrote:predicting the future more than 10 years from now is pretty likely to be wrong.
Often true but in this case ten years isn not that far out,
-EV are only a little more than 5% of the market right now, and that is mostly on the left coast.
-Even with massive government subsidies, EV are very expensive
-Range anxiety confirmed
-Lack of working fast chargers or any chargers for that matter
-Even fast chargers can take 45 minutes to recharge an EV vs 5 minutes inb a gas station for an ICE
-There are not enough materials: copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel and other materials to switch to all EV manufacture.
- Greenies are blocking more mining in the US and other nations of the above materials. And there aren't enough known deposits anyway.
- This current winter really showed even the EV converts the shortcomings of EV
Yes, there are lots of issues with EV's and hybrids so my point was trying to predict the mix of EV, hybrids, plug in hybrids and ICE only vehicles 10 years from now or that any of the options will disapear is an excercise in futility. It's not clear yet (at least to me) that there is any obvious winner in the options mix. They may all co exist for a long time.
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Grit dog
Black Diamond, WA
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pianotuna wrote:Demand is already high.
In 2023 GM says more than 170,000 people have put down $100 refundable deposits on the Sierra. Last year, Ford sold over 15,000 Lightning trucks, even though the vehicles weren’t available until May. The company closed reservations after receiving $100 deposits from nearly 200,000 potential buyers.
And nice backpedal from your initial post about the ERams. That was even more ridiculous.
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2oldman
NM
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Ok, time to move to ATC
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dodge guy
Bartlett IL
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Common sense says the ICE is t going anywhere anytime soon. In fact the only way I would ever buy any Electric vehicle is with an engine like the Pacifica, Wrangler and Grand Cherokee PHEV. You e got to have some type of backup for when the battery dies and you can’t get it charged immediately.
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Reisender
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dodge guy wrote:Common sense says the ICE is t going anywhere anytime soon. In fact the only way I would ever buy any Electric vehicle is with an engine like the Pacifica, Wrangler and Grand Cherokee PHEV. You e got to have some type of backup for when the battery dies and you can’t get it charged immediately.
I don’t know. I suppose there are situations where that could happen. But really, if the battery dies then that means the driver couldn’t read a charge gauge. So he probably can’t read a gas gauge either. Most people don’t have problems with basic instrumentation.
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ktmrfs
Portland, Oregon
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dodge guy wrote:Common sense says the ICE is t going anywhere anytime soon. In fact the only way I would ever buy any Electric vehicle is with an engine like the Pacifica, Wrangler and Grand Cherokee PHEV. You e got to have some type of backup for when the battery dies and you can’t get it charged immediately.
Gee, I won't ever buy just and ICE engine vehicle again, if it runs out of gas or has an engine problem I want a battery backup to keep me going.....................
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pianotuna
Regina, SK, Canada
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How many of use carry a spare gas (or diesel) can full of fuel as we travel on well travelled highways?
I do agree that for off road EV may not be a wise choice.
Regards, Don
My ride is a 28 foot Class C, 256 watts solar, 556 amp-hours of Telcom jars, 3000 watt Magnum hybrid inverter, Sola Basic Autoformer, Microair Easy Start.
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