Future Used RV Market

[pulpwood007]

There have been record numbers of RV's sold during the past year. Many are first time buyers who hope to enjoy the freedoms of camping during the pandemic.

Many of these buyers have paid top dollar for trailers because of supply and demand. They have financed entry level rigs for 10 to 12 years. More expensive trailers can be financed up to 20 years.

Many will take 3 or 4 trips and find camping is not for them, or the pandemic will end and they will go back to their previous ways of vacationing. They will find how difficult it is to get into campgrounds without reservations months in advance.

Will we see many of these buyers decide to sell their new RV's within the next couple of years? What will the used market look like for sellers who have over-paid and financed a rapidly depreciating asset for long periods?

It may well be a good market for buyers, but sellers who are "under water" in their financing may not be able to afford such a "beating".

[CavemanCharlie]

I hope things change in the RV market. I need a new, used, TT. I keep pushing off buying one because I'm cheap. The market for used ones around here went crazy this year. I hope that something happens to cause it to "Reset".

This is one time that waiting didn't work out for me. I should have gotten one last year. But, I didn't know things were going to go crazy.

I figure I'm out of luck for at least another year. Time to fix the roof on mine,, again,, and go use it again next year.

Worst part is finding a spot. A few years ago it was easy. Just take off on a Friday and pull in somewhere close by. I have a feeling next year might be a real pain. I'm already scoping out places and counting backward from the weekend I want to go. Many of the parks around here are 120 days in advance. You better be ready yo make your reservation at that time or you are not going to get it.

Sucks really. I can't tell you what I'm going to be doing 120 days from now. As a farm hand my job, and life, doesn't work that way. I have a feeling I'm just going to need to make reservations and then cancel them if it doesn't work. Cost money to cancel but, if I can't make it there , I can't make it there.

[TomG2]

People who purchased RV's on the $200/month forever plan are not the kind that have $10,000 laying around to pay off a loan they are under water on. They will keep the thing rather than pony up the cash required for a sale. Besides, Brother in law Eddie may want to take a trip.

[valhalla360]

way2roll wrote:
Surprised (well maybe not) by some of the comments on this forum about new campers, "Covidiots" and the like. Do you have a monopoly on camping we didn't know about? Are newbies not entitled to be newbies simply because their motives to go camping were spurred by no real alternative to safe travel? Weren't you newbies at one point? Lots of assumptions about the lack of intellect on some new campers and presumed short sightedness. I know quite a few newbies this year and I can attest, they aren't stupid or naïve. And none of them have any intent of hanging up the camping hat anytime soon. Will some revert back to conventional travel post pandemic, whenever that is? Yes. But not all. But these comments about newbies being idiots is, well, idiotic.

I took the original intent as more an issue of people's normal recreational outlets have been shut down so many have diverted to new options. Not that they are idiots.

I would take current intent they tell you with a big grain of salt. Not many people would plunk down many thousands of dollars with the intention of calling it a blunder. Actually admitting to a blunder, usually comes years later after the wound is healed.

I agree, not all will revert back to their old recreational outlets but it's quite likely a sizable percentage will. If even 30% dump their rig in a year or two, that would be a lot of relatively new units hitting the market and likely would depress prices.

Honestly, I find it highly unlikely that all the new RVers will continue longer term. So the real question is how long before these RVs wind up on the market and do they do so in a large surge.

[wildtoad]

It would be interesting to survey the commercial campgrounds to determine how full their year round “camping” sites are. As I travel around I see a lot of TT’s (and other types) parked on land next to a house with all indications that someone is living in it full time. When I was going through rehab for a back issue, one of the therapists mentioned she just moved into a TT as it was what they could afford.

I also see a lot of young families living in larger MH’s as the have jobs that allow them to work from anywhere they can get reliable internet access.

So many purchases of “RV’s” are not for “recreation”, nor are they bought for their “vehicle” capabilities.

[dryfly]

way2roll wrote:
Surprised (well maybe not) by some of the comments on this forum about new campers, "Covidiots" and the like. Do you have a monopoly on camping we didn't know about? Are newbies not entitled to be newbies simply because their motives to go camping were spurred by no real alternative to safe travel? Weren't you newbies at one point? Lots of assumptions about the lack of intellect on some new campers and presumed short sightedness. I know quite a few newbies this year and I can attest, they aren't stupid or naïve. And none of them have any intent of hanging up the camping hat anytime soon. Will some revert back to conventional travel post pandemic, whenever that is? Yes. But not all. But these comments about newbies being idiots is, well, idiotic.

This thread was started with the intent of NOT painting camping newbies as intellectually inferior, but to look at the financial aspect of owning an RV. The pandemic may have had a positive affect on getting families together more often, and through camping. That's cool!

Some comments from above: I don't think we will see trailers selling for pennies of the dollar, mainly because of the irresponsible financing that is taking place. Folks can't take that kind of financial hit. I do feel the lack of ability to use during the winter months and the lack of campground facilities will cause some to doubt their decisions. And high on the list is the maintenance that is required on these poorly built units.

Adding all these factors together may present an unusual situation for both the used and new RV market.

Most folks on this forum are experienced RV owners, and many do most of their maintenance. They know the in's and out's of camping and owning a RV. On the other hand many newbies with good intentions jumped into RV ownership not knowing what was ahead. I wish them well!

[way2roll]

Surprised (well maybe not) by some of the comments on this forum about new campers, "Covidiots" and the like. Do you have a monopoly on camping we didn't know about? Are newbies not entitled to be newbies simply because their motives to go camping were spurred by no real alternative to safe travel? Weren't you newbies at one point? Lots of assumptions about the lack of intellect on some new campers and presumed short sightedness. I know quite a few newbies this year and I can attest, they aren't stupid or naïve. And none of them have any intent of hanging up the camping hat anytime soon. Will some revert back to conventional travel post pandemic, whenever that is? Yes. But not all. But these comments about newbies being idiots is, well, idiotic.

[valhalla360]

GDS-3950BH wrote:

valhalla360 wrote:
Assuming the vaccines are successful, we are probably looking at 2022 before we see a big dumping of RVs (if that happens at all). A lot of people will still be nervous about air travel for a year or two.

Nervous for a year or two, these are not flying around empty.

valhalla360 wrote:

Plus keep in mind, it's not unusual for a family of 4 to dump $10k into a 2 week vacation...so I don't think people are going to panic over a $20k RV sitting in the back yard.

From what I have seen the Covidiot Campers did not buy $20K rigs but the largest most expensive they could find or afford, or thought they could afford. When this pandemic all shakes out along with recent events, and the coming recession hits home because of that, a lot of folks are going to be in a world of financial hurt.

Now show us that same map from the same period last year and add in the occupancy rates...air travel is down massively. Even worse if you look at international travel. Show us a similar set of maps for the transatlantic routing with occupancy and try to make the claim people are still flying in similar numbers.

As far as buying $200-500k rigs, I'm sure some did sell but the simple fact is there weren't that many sitting around on dealer lots. Most were you basic entry to mid level towables.

[GDS-3950BH]

NJRVer wrote:
Seems a lot of people on here are thinking that all the people who paid a small fortune for their RV are going to throw their arms up and put them up for sale for pennies on the dollar.

Don't count on it.

The vast majority of those who bought due to Covid in the Northern states will soon face reality if they haven't already. That is the campgrounds are closed until April, and even later the farther north one goes. Unless they want to drive or tow the RV far south it's going to sit for months.

Most do not realize the amount of maintenance involved without taking into account the bad build quality, materials, and methods used to begin with. They look at it like a car purchase and think its pretty much set it and forget it. I was at a large dealer last year tire kicking when it happened to be raining hard, and the amount of brand new rigs sitting on that lot which were leaking was beyond belief. Those were the ones you could see such as around slides and such.

By spring their will be plenty of water damaged units in northern states sitting on storage lots and in driveways/backyards, which will not even be worth pennies on the dollar.

[ORbiker]

Here in Western Oregon (Coburg, Oregon) there is many fairly large RV dealer. All their lot used to be RV's parked side by side by side... now they can barely cover the outside perimeter end to end.
I work at many RV Parks on their laundry equipment and they have been full since June.

[TomG2]

A large dealer here in Texas told me that all ordered stock is sold before it arrives this fall.

What might bail out today's buyers is inflation. Prices are going up and seldom go down. Inflation is inevitable, A fellow in this park purchased a five year old Casita in June and has already turned down a thirty percent profit.

[philh]

I have a fairly large RV dealer near me... their lot used to be RV's parked side by side by side... now they can barely cover the outside perimeter end to end. People are still buying.

We're considering selling our travel trailer late spring, as we're likely going to get a 5th wheel late next year.

[NJRVer]

Seems a lot of people on here are thinking that all the people who paid a small fortune for their RV are going to throw their arms up and put them up for sale for pennies on the dollar.

Don't count on it.

[BarabooBob]

We have been traveling through this year. Many new owners have been very willing to listen when I have tried to help them at campgrounds if they looked like they needed help. Most of them said that they had been thinking about getting some form of RV but took the dive with covid making hotels less attractive. Most of them seemed to be in it for the long haul. Most of the people that I talked to were in TT's less than 24 ft. I did not talk to the people in the larger units because most of them were sitting inside enjoying their larger units.

[pulpwood007]

thomasmnile wrote:
Found RVIA wholesale delivery figures through October. Year over year sales are actually down slightly vs 2019, but primarily due to idled factories in the spring. Towables lead sales, motorhomes are down around 5% from 2019.

You are correct. By record sales, I was referring more to the reported rush by first time buyers to get into camping. I don't know if the trailer market can be accurately compared to the automobile market. There is no doubt a car or truck depreciates rapidly, but it may be that a trailer depreciates even more rapidly, and the market is not as liquid.

Another issue to include is how well these currently built trailers are. What will many of them look like in a couple of years.