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 > 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

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BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 08/29/20 06:12am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

RambleOnNW wrote:

Here is a report of Nevada man that had a second covid infection with a different variant than the first time. This one put him in the hospital.


https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/08/........s-time-second-infection-was-more-severe/
You forgot to mention that unlike the other reported cases they don’t know if the first infection in the man in Reno lead to seroconversion. Where with the vaccines they will be measuring seroconversion for multiple locations on the virus.

As it was noted previously not all antibodies are “neutralizing” (evidence suggests the antibodies against spike subunit 1 where the RBD is located) and not all antibody tests measure the the same antibodies. Without knowing which antibodies were measured for the others who have been re-infected there is no way to know if the first infected yielded neutralizing antibodies.

* This post was edited 08/29/20 08:03am by BCSnob *

dturm

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Posted: 08/29/20 09:19am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

There was a thread closed on the Sturgis rally that started with an assumption that showed a profound misunderstanding of epidemiology and the forecasting models that are a part of epidemiology.

It was stated that “only” 103 COVID cases had been documented from the Sturgis rally and this was a good thing, implying that it wasn’t a super spreader event and that the predictions are/were way off base.

The 103 scare me for a couple of reasons. Our testing is so deficient that it really only picks up a fraction of the actual positives. Some estimates are that we only find 1 in 10. Could there have been 1030 cases?

Some have said that the modeling and experts have been wrong, implying that their information and opinions are wrong and should be dismissed. Modeling is not an exact science. There are so many variables that the eventual outcome should be thought of as a prediction much like weather forecasting. The difference is that the tools we have to mitigate the eventual outcome are in our hands where we are at the mercy of the weather.

Also, with a new disease like this novel coronavirus, we learn things about the disease and how the disease is spread that help us refine the models and improve the predictive value. So, early models tend to be less accurate.

The reason that the Sturgis rally and other mass events are problematic is because this disease can go undetected and can be easily spread especially with asymptomatic individuals. This leads to an exponential spread. With COVID the estimates are that the number of cases doubles every 4-5 days without mitigation (social isolation, masks, testing, isolation and contact tracing).

Those 103 cases could go back to their homes and spread COVID to 2-3 other people (the figure most often used for this disease). Then each of those people spread it to 2-3 other people. Then those people give it to 2-3 other people, and so on. You can see quickly the 103 becomes 206, 412, 824, 1648, 3296… Within a few weeks there could be massive outbreaks in several different places.

The only way to prevent these types of events is to not have them. A way to mitigate the effects of them is to test everyone (not in our capability now) and isolate, quarantine positives and social distance and mask up to minimize chances of spread.


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BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 08/29/20 09:37am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

From Minnesota MDH COVID-19 briefing

Quote:

Cluster outbreaks/Sturgis:

Infections related to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota that took place earlier this month are continuing to rise. Infections related to the event now stand at 46 confirmed cases with two individuals being hospitalized, one of which is in intensive care, Ehresmann said.

MDH is also beginning to see secondary transmission from the Sturgis cases. While those cases are not included in the total of 46, they are a concern, Ehresmann said. She also said that they are expecting to see more secondary transmission from these cases as the days continue.

Some of the secondary transmission from Sturgis cases came from a wedding, according to Ehresmann. MDH is concerned about an increase in cluster cases involving weddings, parties and other gatherings that are not following social distancing or masking recommendations.


* This post was edited 08/29/20 09:49am by BCSnob *

RambleOnNW

Pacific Northwest

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Posted: 08/29/20 08:23pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Sturgis attendees have been reported to have visited 61% of US counties after the rally. This according to Camber Systems:

https://hosted.ap.org/thetimes-tribune/a........-rally-covid-19-infections-move-fast-far


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MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

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Posted: 08/30/20 12:20pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Were not most of the Sturgis activities out of doors?

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 08/30/20 12:54pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/19/us/sturgis-south-dakota-rally-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

RambleOnNW

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Posted: 08/30/20 01:39pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

MEXICOWANDERER wrote:

Were not most of the Sturgis activities out of doors?


Reportedly outdoors during the day and in bars at night:

https://www.tmz.com/2020/08/08/sturgis-m........rcycle-rally-draws-huge-crowd-local-bar/

BCSnob

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Posted: 09/01/20 02:48pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I’ve been meaning to post this. You (as I am) can daily check the latest preprints of Covid-19 research articles here: COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 preprints from medRxiv and bioRxiv

BCSnob

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Posted: 09/02/20 10:47am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

The infection rate in children of healthcare workers in the UK appears to be the same as in adults based upon the presence of antibodies. This suggests that children are no less susceptible to being infected. The study did find that 50% of the children with Covid-19 antibody titers reported have no symptoms suggesting they are less impacted by this virus. I have read that the amount of ACE2 receptor is correlated with age (source).

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in children - A prospective multicentre cohort study.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.31.20183095

Quote:

This observational study is one of the largest UK studies of paediatric SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence, and the only study to recruit from all regions of the UK. Following the first pandemic wave in the UK, 68/992 (6.9%) children of healthcare workers had evidence of prior infection with SARS-CoV-2. Whilst this is likely to be higher than the general population it is surprisingly similar to the seroprevalence reported by the ONS study of adults from England and Wales (6.2%) (10), and similar to international estimates (11-13). As expected there was marked geographical variation, with London reporting the highest infection rates (11.6%) and Belfast the lowest (0.9%) p<0.0001. These regional variations are consistent with published adult estimates of seroprevalence from the same time period (10).
In this study there was a near equal number of children under 10 years of age 32/68 (47%) and children over 10 years of age 36/68 (53%) developing antibodies consistent with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Age, as a categorical or continuous variable, was not a statistically significant factor in predicting the presence of antibodies, or the overall titres in children irrespective of the assay used (Figure 2). This is in contrast to several studies that have reported a lower seroprevalence in young children (under 10 years of age) and in elderly adults (over 65 years of age) following the first wave of the pandemic (11-13). This has led some authors to suggest that children are less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection (27-30). The studies on which these assumptions are based have typically reported a binary antibody outcome (positive or negative) rather than absolute titres (11-13). It is possible that the lower seroprevalence reported thus far in younger children merely reflects the effect of social distancing measures on this group. This may go some way to explain why the over 65s also demonstrated lower seroprevalence in the same studies (27-30). In our cohort, children were more likely to be exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in the home due to fact that their parent(s) worked in healthcare. The findings from this study may therefore provide a greater insight into how younger children react when exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Further research is required to understand if younger children are really less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2.


pianotuna

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Posted: 09/02/20 11:30am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

This is a good read:

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomp........ting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63


Regards, Don
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