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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
Again, you choose one person's perspective and choose to ignore every one else.
This was stated in his argument:
In the data for UK, Sweden, the US, and the world, it can be seen that in all cases, deaths were on the rise in March through mid or late April, then began tapering off in a smooth slope which flattened around the end of June and continues to today. The case rates however, based on testing, rise and swing upwards and downwards wildly.
I can see a flaw immediately. He assumes the decrease in death rate is due to decrease in actual cases. Therefore, since there is a decrease in death rate the increase in cases must be due to "false positives."
In actuality, the new cases are hitting age groups where death is not as common an outcome AND our medical professionals have learned a tremendous amount about this disease and how to treat it. They have tools and treatment protocols not available or utilized in March, April and May and have a much better chance at saving those infected. Possible reason for decreased death rate despite rising cases???
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dturm
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09/25/20 11:07am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
I've read reports of the mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Most reports have indicated that the mutations to date won't have much effect on how the current vaccines in development may work. That's reassuring if it turns out to be true.
BTW, viral mutations are not unusual. It's interesting that they can find the RNA sequence and then use these mutations to track the viral spread and form a pretty good idea where outbreaks originated and where they spread.
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dturm
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09/25/20 08:34am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
The problem here is evaluation of information. In this day and age of the internet a huge amount of information is available and it is incumbent on us to evaluate that information. You can have a preconceived opinion and easily find supporting "evidence."
You're exactly correct. You may have a preconceived opinion on this and don't even recognize it.
Here is a peer review study about gaiters from Duke
This is a peer review study that shows gaiters don't even work but are in fact, according to this peer review study more dangerous to wear.
I choose to believe peer review studies like this one.
You have proved my point. I accept the study about gaiters, it says nothing about surgical masks, N95 masks or home made multilayered fabric masks. You choose one study rather than the totality of information available.
You choose to ignore the information about them.
BTW, I am a doctor with 43 years of experience dealing with infectious diseases in a general veterinary practice and have had training in public health and epidemiology. Just sayin'...
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dturm
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09/24/20 08:20am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
HEADS UP!!!! The youtube video was from March, 2020. We have learned a lot since then. Please post as current info as possible. Thank you.
Mod this video was made last month. Does that fit your criteria better?
This video shows how a mask handles a vape aerosol (many, many, many, many magnitudes larger than a CV virus or the water vapor it can hitch hike on).
Aerosol breath water vapor is much small and will hitch hike on air currents and float around for many minutes in a room.
It doesn't take much grey matter to see how good of a job a mask will do under these conditions.
The problem here is evaluation of information. In this day and age of the internet a huge amount of information is available and it is incumbent on us to evaluate that information. You can have a preconceived opinion and easily find supporting "evidence."
The key to using that gray matter and forming an informed opinion is to amass as much information and evaluate it according to it's veracity.
A study like BCSnob cited has way more validity than a youtube video of a doctor demonstrating expelling a huge tidal volume of vapor through various masks.
Nobody says masks are 100% effective in preventing spread of disease. In fact one of the reasons that masks were not originally recommended is that they may only have about 20% protective efficiency in filtering some droplets/aerosols.
What has been documented over and over by many studies is that use of masks combined with social distancing has some positive effect and is the most effective means we have at this time to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
To downplay their use because they don't provide 100% protection isn't using your gray matter to it's fullest potential.
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dturm
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09/24/20 03:00am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: A very old stray {The Old Fella Story}
OMG, potential nightmare that turned out well.
About 50 years ago I dropped a utility trailer in rural Minnesota where the tongue broke leaving the hitch attached to the car. The safety chains held and I had the trailer loaded correctly so what was left of the tongue slid along the ground. I was able to pull off the road like you did and jury rig the trailer to slowly drive back to town (about a mile) and found a wonderful guy that welded a whole new tongue and we were back on our way within a couple of hours.
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dturm
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09/22/20 05:44am |
RV Pet Stop
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RE: A very old stray {The Old Fella Story}
Sure has been quiet here - hope all are OK. We just dodged Hurricane Sally, but still had 18" of rain and 50mph winds for 3 days. Pretty much passed now.
We're doing well, staying close to home and no camping or trips.
We've been keeping an eye on hurricane Sally. She really dumped on our January winter home, Gulf State Park in Gulf Shores, AL. We'll stay tuned for how much damage and how long it will take to repair. Glad you avoided the worst of the storm.
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dturm
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09/17/20 10:59am |
RV Pet Stop
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RE: Clusters of dog diabetes in households-Dr. Doug et al
Being retired I'm not privy to the day to day changes, but I'll check around here. The veterinary message boards I have access to don't show any inquiries.
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dturm
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09/15/20 09:27am |
RV Pet Stop
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
I'm not sure there is any "scientific evidence" that the above statement is false, but it just doesn't make any sense if you think about it from an infectious disease standpoint.
You are more likely to be infected where the virus is more prevalent. The places where the virus is rapidly spreading increases your chance of coming in contact with it.
If you are "locking yourself in your home" you have little to no chance of contacting the virus.
The absence of a study that proves a point should not interfere with reasoned analysis of the situation.
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dturm
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09/15/20 04:01am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: Pet Food Recall
The time of year we tend to see aflatoxin problems.
Sunshine Mills recall
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dturm
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09/08/20 03:45pm |
RV Pet Stop
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RE: Do dogs have an internal gps?
Along with GPS built in, there is a reasoning ability a problem solving that many dogs display. Some more than others, but not simply memory or conditioning.
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dturm
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09/08/20 06:44am |
RV Pet Stop
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RE: Do dogs have an internal gps?
I wouldn't be surprised. Many animals have some sort of GPS, think migrating birds, butterflies.
I saw a paper several years ago that theorized that dogs orient when defecating, I don't remember the compass heading :B. I didn't believe it, it seems that local environment and wind direction would have a greater influence. The things people study...
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dturm
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09/07/20 10:50am |
RV Pet Stop
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RE: A very old stray {The Old Fella Story}
Sorry for your family's loss.
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dturm
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09/03/20 03:17am |
RV Pet Stop
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RE: A very old stray {The Old Fella Story}
So sorry, Sgt Joe. I'm glad she went peacefully in your arms. Take care and give Rocky lots of hugs from us too.
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dturm
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09/01/20 06:35pm |
RV Pet Stop
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RE: Safety Cat Travel Carrier Recommendations?
When we had our Henry we had a soft sided carrier that had a rigid frame that collapsed. I've forgotten the brand, but it folded flat and ended up about 2-3 inches wide with the footprint of the bottom of the carrier. They have a huge selection on Amazon or Chewy.
BTW, Henry quickly adapted to travel and preferred to sleep on the bed in back during travel. It was a safe location and he didn't try to wander so we just brought the carrier along just in case.
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dturm
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08/30/20 12:10pm |
RV Pet Stop
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RE: 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS
There was a thread closed on the Sturgis rally that started with an assumption that showed a profound misunderstanding of epidemiology and the forecasting models that are a part of epidemiology.
It was stated that “only” 103 COVID cases had been documented from the Sturgis rally and this was a good thing, implying that it wasn’t a super spreader event and that the predictions are/were way off base.
The 103 scare me for a couple of reasons. Our testing is so deficient that it really only picks up a fraction of the actual positives. Some estimates are that we only find 1 in 10. Could there have been 1030 cases?
Some have said that the modeling and experts have been wrong, implying that their information and opinions are wrong and should be dismissed. Modeling is not an exact science. There are so many variables that the eventual outcome should be thought of as a prediction much like weather forecasting. The difference is that the tools we have to mitigate the eventual outcome are in our hands where we are at the mercy of the weather.
Also, with a new disease like this novel coronavirus, we learn things about the disease and how the disease is spread that help us refine the models and improve the predictive value. So, early models tend to be less accurate.
The reason that the Sturgis rally and other mass events are problematic is because this disease can go undetected and can be easily spread especially with asymptomatic individuals. This leads to an exponential spread. With COVID the estimates are that the number of cases doubles every 4-5 days without mitigation (social isolation, masks, testing, isolation and contact tracing).
Those 103 cases could go back to their homes and spread COVID to 2-3 other people (the figure most often used for this disease). Then each of those people spread it to 2-3 other people. Then those people give it to 2-3 other people, and so on. You can see quickly the 103 becomes 206, 412, 824, 1648, 3296… Within a few weeks there could be massive outbreaks in several different places.
The only way to prevent these types of events is to not have them. A way to mitigate the effects of them is to test everyone (not in our capability now) and isolate, quarantine positives and social distance and mask up to minimize chances of spread.
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dturm
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08/29/20 09:19am |
Around the Campfire
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RE: Coronavirus
Western Washington in late Feb, I'd also be curious. If and when we get a good reliable antibody test, results could tell you.
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dturm
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08/28/20 07:00pm |
RV Pet Stop
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RE: Sturgis 2020 great news!
LOL...your a bit premature.
It may be best to wait for a actual scientific research in a few weeks to come out before you pound your chest and be like some that have egg on their face with opinions like that.
Agreed. Exponential growth bias.
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dturm
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08/28/20 03:33pm |
Around the Campfire
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RE: A very old stray {The Old Fella Story}
A couple of thoughts regarding Cookie:
Is this a real seizure or a syncopal attack (fainting) due to the heart condition? If it is only heart related, changing/adding heart meds may be useful, but in the long run this condition won't be reversed.
It's kind of unusual for seizures to develop this late in life unless there is another health issue causing the seizure (tumors or metabolic issues).
Regardless, a syncopal attack or seizure is usually not painful to the dog. As Dale said, they can be extremely fatiguing and post event most dogs do feel wiped out.
Regarding end of life issues, most times the dogs themselves will tell you when they have had enough. Just be tuned in to behavior and be sensitive to Cookie's needs.
You both need to come to agreement on final arrangements. The service we use offer a cremation and have an option where an amulet filled with the ashes along with the rest of the remains are provided. Most people who do this bury the remains but keep the amulet someplace special where there isn't a constant reminder. Just an option.
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dturm
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08/27/20 08:29am |
RV Pet Stop
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RE: A very old stray {The Old Fella Story}
A very heartwarming story about dog rescue pilot this morning on CBS Sunday morning
Dog is my copilot
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dturm
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08/23/20 07:49am |
RV Pet Stop
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RE: A plea to get involved
I voted by mail for the first time in this year's primary. It was supposed to be in May but was delayed due to COVID. I was surprised and reassured by the security measures taken by our election board. There were numbered ballots, initials by election officials on the ballot, then signatures required in multiple places. I suspect there are more ballots disqualified because someone didn't sign or signed in the wrong place or a poll judge didn't think the signature matched that on the registration.
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dturm
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08/22/20 04:48pm |
Around the Campfire
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