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RE: 2019–2022 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

While I found the mathematical modeling beyond my abilities, I did find the introduction informative on the subtleties in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2. Antibody escape, the risk of serotype formation, and rapid immune waning: modeling the implications of SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion MedRxiv Preprint 26Jan2023 Introduction Some early commentators bullishly predicted the end of the COVID-19 pandemic 1–4, with the build-up of vaccine and natural immunity eventually curtailing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, the pandemic is now entering its fourth year despite a vast burden of prior infection, over 13 billion vaccination doses globally 5 and high prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies 6,7. Consistent with early-pandemic warnings 8–13, the pace of immune evasion has proven rapid 14,15, and transmission has continued robustly in the post-vaccine era 16. Warnings about insufficient vaccine acceptance 17, rapid waning of vaccine and post-infection immune protection 18,19, and antibody evasion 8–10,20 have all materialized at this point 21–23, leading to the high levels of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The ability of SARS-CoV-2 to evade immunity through mutations that degrade antibody binding has been a major driver of high and variable viral transmission. Indeed, the post-omicron era of the pandemic has been marked by successive waves driven by immune-evading subvariants, including BA.1, BA.5, XBB, and XBB.1.5 14,22,24–26. These immune-evading strains acquire an evolutionary advantage in the context of widespread immunity through mutations that degrade the binding of antibodies induced by infection with prior strains or by vaccines (“antigenic drift”)27. As neutralizing antibodies mediate sterilizing immunity to SARS-CoV-2–that is, they block infection upon exposure—evasion of these antibodies promotes reinfection 28. This advantage has allowed these immune-evading strains to achieve dominance, drive spikes in transmission, and replace (succeed) pre-existing strains 20. Between December 2021 (initial dissemination of the original BA.1 omicron variant) and December 2022, several strain succession events were documented resulting in an approximately 35-fold loss in neutralizing titer 29. Understanding the potential of emerging strains to drive waves of infection, persist in circulation, and co-circulate with pre-existing strains is vital for understanding and reacting to this volatile phase of the pandemic. Immune evasion has implications for short-term and long-term transmission levels 30, possible changes in disease severity (manuscript in preparation), and the efficacy of vaccines and therapeutics, especially monoclonal antibodies 22,31. Anticipating the behavior of viral variants has tremendous practical significance for designing nonpharmaceutical and biomedical interventions. In this study, we use an epidemiological modeling framework to build a quantitative understanding of the role of immune evasion in inter-strain competition and selection dynamics under endemic conditions. To this end, we developed a two-strain Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model accounting for variable cross-immunity between a pre-existing and an invading strain. This paper explores viral evolutionary strategies by simulating a few relevant immunological scenarios: antigenic drift, which we surmise may be symmetric or unilateral, and induction of less durable immunity. Antigenic drift results in reduced cross-immunity (immunity induced by one strain against another) compared to homologous immunity (immunity induced by a strain against itself) 32. If the impact of antigenic drift is symmetric, the invading strain’s cross immunity against the original strain will equal the original strain’s cross immunity against the invading strain. The plausibility of this scenario is supported by the tolerance of SARS-CoV-2’s spike for a wide variety of mutations 8,33,34. However, omicron BA.1 appeared to benefit from essentially unilateral antigenic drift: while BA.1 strongly evaded pre-existing immunity to delta, the delta was impeded by immunity induced by BA.1 35. The final scenario regards the possibility of viral strains with reduced durability of immunological protection from reinfection. Possibly exemplifying this scenario is omicron, which appears to exert weaker protection against homologous reinfection than delta (prior omicron reduces risk of omicron reinfection by 59.3%; prior delta infection reduces risk of delta reinfection by 92.3%, 36.) Determining the immunological properties likely to be selected for is crucial for predicting the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 under widespread transmission. Although the rapid pace of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and the simultaneous emergence of immune-evading multiple variants paints a complex picture 37,38, this simplified analysis provides a basis for understanding the inter-strain competition and selection that underpin these dynamics. Identifying the characteristics of strains likely to be successful and drive significant waves of transmission is crucial to support early-warning systems. Co-circulation of viral serotypes – that is, viral strains sufficiently antigenically distinct to coexist 39 – is an emergent threat that requires greater understanding and may lead to dramatically worse outcomes in the long-term trajectory of the pandemic.
BCSnob 01/31/23 07:50am Around the Campfire
RE: New Working LGDs

Since lambing starts early March, we need to be confidentDuke and Penny will accept our border collies working our sheep. We rely upon our border collies to help move new mothers and their lambs from the field (where most give birth) to barn stalls where we keep the new families for a few days. Saturday I took Fern and Lee (one at a time) out to work the flock while just Penny was loose with the flock. Penny has never been around border collies working sheep. She was interested in meeting (and hoping Fern or Lee would play) but not in interfering with them working. I didn’t record Fern; I did record some of Lee’s work session. Video 1 Video 2 Next up is repeating this with Duke and then with both Duke & Penny
BCSnob 01/30/23 07:44am RV Pet Stop
RE: Movie Recommendation

I enjoyed “Greyhound” with Tom Hanks.
BCSnob 01/24/23 02:52am Around the Campfire
RE: New Working LGDs

I needed to borrow a second giant crate to transport both Anatolians home in our van. I got one from a friend who told me she placed her LGDs with a plant nursery (leaving her sheep unprotected) because of frequent and consistent complaints from the general public to animal control about her LDGs living in a fenced field unattended (they did have shelter). One of the animal control officers started demanding she come deal with the unlawful living conditions of her dogs (unattended). Clearly, this officer and the general public do not know the exemptions for: "....DOG IS LAWFULLY AND ACTIVELY ENGAGED IN: (1) HUNTING; (2) LIVESTOCK HERDING OR GUARDING; (3) SLEDDING; (4) SPORTING; OR (5) TRAINING." This is not the first time I've been told about the general public causing issues for owners of working LDGs; for example "rescuing" one from a fenced field with their sheep and taking it to the animal shelter because it was obviously abandoned.
BCSnob 01/17/23 07:34am RV Pet Stop
RE: New Working LGDs

I was given a tour of the farm where I got the dogs; saw their other dogs and sheep. We flushed a golden eagle from a tree on our tour (one of their predators); I was told the dogs have not been very successful against the eagles or the mountain lion if the sheep are spread out. Duke and Penny seem content with their new home Play time
BCSnob 01/17/23 06:49am RV Pet Stop
RE: New Working LGDs

“Fun Fact” for everyone; Kangals & Anatolian Shepherds have the highest bite force of any dog breed, 2x-3x that of Pitbulls. Fortunately, unless they are poorly bred they have very little human aggression.
BCSnob 01/16/23 06:09am RV Pet Stop
RE: New Working LGDs

They'll need a vet check soon; the sheep farmer was told by her vet that they didn't need to treat for heartworm in south-eastern WV. Saturday night we crated them in a barn stall to be safe instead of turning them loose on the farm after I got home after sunset. Sunday morning I had Lee move the sheep into the barnyard, put him back in the house (saving the dog-dog introductions for later), and let Duke and Penny loose in the barnyard. New dogs & curious sheep Silly puppy Penny Since the sheep were not scared of the new dogs and other than Penny being a little rambunctious I could tell there would be no sheep-dog issues. Penny had been on a drag at her home farm to slow her down a bit (prevent her from running through and playing with the sheep) so I pulled out the drag we used with Sam when he was still young. I then spent 2hrs following Duke and Penny while they checked out the field/fence lines, followed and marked the trails foxes follow through the field, and monitored them with the barn cats (Penny grabbed and picked up one of them). I made sure they both got fed, learned how to get in and out of the barn where their autofeeders are, and made sure both were using the autofeeders. At this point we just need to make sure Penny doesn't kill cats and both meet and accept our working border collies. We will have both LGDs on chains in the field to watch the Border Collies work (Duke has been around working Border Collies gathering “his” sheep) and we’ll carefully do the dog-dog introductions watching for and reading the reactions.
BCSnob 01/16/23 05:51am RV Pet Stop
New Working LGDs

Yesterday I brought home two Anatolian Shepherds that came from a large sheep farm. 6yo Duke https://i.imgur.com/BWuIh6yl.jpg He is taller and longer than Wendy was. He was a bit snug in his crate (48"L x 32"W x 35"H) coming home. 1yo Penny https://i.imgur.com/qIP3FVjl.jpg They had been working together on the sheep farm and seem happy together here https://i.imgur.com/bo2yjEzl.jpg The only issue so far is Penny wants to attack the barn cats who had learned Sam & Wendy were cat friendly.
BCSnob 01/15/23 02:32pm RV Pet Stop
RE: EV alternative for light/medium duty trucks

RVing comes in many flavors. It seems when discussing EVs as tow vehicles the only flavor of RVing many people want to focus on the hauling a >6000lbs TT/5th wheel on a multi day cross country trip. An EV is currently not a good TV for this flavor of RVing. Another flavor of RVing is hauling a <6000lb TT or an even lighter PU a few hrs from home to a campground for a weekend camping trip using their daily commuting vehicle as the TV. Is everyone willing to bet the current EVs could not fulfill this function? Don’t forget most of the population won’t be towing “the Ike” on a weekend camping trip.
BCSnob 01/14/23 04:32am Tow Vehicles
RE: EV alternative for light/medium duty trucks

Even miles/$? :)
BCSnob 01/12/23 12:50pm Tow Vehicles
RE: EV alternative for light/medium duty trucks

Comparison of the Overall Energy Efficiency for Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles and Electric Vehicles Environmental and Climate Technologies 2020, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 669–680 link Well to wheels efficiency: Gasoline ICEV: 12%-22% Diesel ICEV: 25%-37% 100% Coal fired power BEV: 13%-27% 100% Natural Gas fired power BEV: 13%-31% 100% Commercial Wind/PV BEV: 39%-67% Onsite (not grid supplied) PV BEV: 42%-72%
BCSnob 01/12/23 08:53am Tow Vehicles
RE: EV alternative for light/medium duty trucks

Dude, I've seen your posts and respect you, but this is a pretty thin argument.look at my post on the Socratic method Fwiw I would get an EV for my next commuter vehicle if the electrical wiring in our equipment shed gets updated by then. Charging at home at night will be difficult with wiring that does not have a ground wire (only 2 conductors). My reality of living on a farm that was retrofitted for electricity after the farm was already 100 years old.
BCSnob 01/11/23 05:50pm Tow Vehicles
RE: Rivian R1S

Is towing heavy a prerequisite to buy one? Most 1/2 tons just do groceries, soccer games, runs to Lowes and occasional boat hauling. I've had trucks for work transportation since 1995. Only stated towing for recreation in 2010 after I retired. I mean... this is posted in the TOW VEHICLES sub forum, so it seems like a legitimate question.Really???? 2023 Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon
BCSnob 01/11/23 04:26pm Tow Vehicles
RE: EV alternative for light/medium duty trucks

My questions are delivered in the spirit of the Socratic method, to get people to think about the ramifications of their arguments. Such as power generation must be built for future EV adoption before EV adoption should be allowed to occur.
BCSnob 01/11/23 03:54pm Tow Vehicles
RE: EV alternative for light/medium duty trucks

Do people want utilities to increase generation capacity (passing these capital investment costs onto consumers) based upon the most aggressive predictions of EV adoption (putting the horse before the cart) or continue to build in capacity based upon changes in measured demand?
BCSnob 01/11/23 03:03pm Tow Vehicles
RE: EV alternative for light/medium duty trucks

In other words “the cart before the horse” (in terms of power generation) is a false argument against adoption of EVs because increasing power generation requires there be incentives for the power companies.I don't have a clue what all this means. :hOne argument posted here against the adoption of EV: the grid doesn’t have the power generation capacity needed for charging EVs. Adoption of EVs is putting “the cart before the horse”. The faulty logic in this argument is power generation capacity won’t be increased until the demand for power increases by the adoption of EVs. Why would companies pay for a large increase in power generation unless they see there will be a return on investment?
BCSnob 01/11/23 01:56pm Tow Vehicles
RE: EV alternative for light/medium duty trucks

In other words “the cart before the horse” (in terms of power generation) is a false argument against adoption of EVs because increasing power generation requires there be incentives for the power companies.
BCSnob 01/11/23 11:17am Tow Vehicles
RE: EV alternative for light/medium duty trucks

For those thinking and/or posting “the cart before the horse” comments about the lack of grid resilience & power generation capacity for EVs; I have a follow up question. Will the entities responsible for the grid/power generation build in more capacity if there isn’t increased demand from EVs (or other power consumers) or a government mandate?
BCSnob 01/11/23 05:55am Tow Vehicles
RE: We're getting ready........for lambing

May have located 2 available LGDs (6yo & 1yo) ~5hrs away on a 700ewe sheep farm.
BCSnob 01/05/23 03:58pm RV Pet Stop
RE: EV alternative for light/medium duty trucks

“Reading is fundamental” :R This is in a red box at the top of the linked webpage on death rates: NOTE: All 2020 and later data are UN projections and DO NOT include any impacts of the COVID-19 virus. Just imagine, had the pandemic NOT occurred the death rates were projected to have gone down. Instead we have many assessments of “excess mortality” (death rate greater than the projected) during the pandemic. Link Most curious is that this website has been posted on RV.net in the past in support of the claim there have been no excess deaths due to Covid-19 and I pointed out that time about the note in the red box.
BCSnob 01/04/23 03:24am Tow Vehicles
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